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Incidence and survival of uveal melanoma in Northern Ireland: how incomplete data can skew results in rare cancers

Abstract

Background

The majority of Northern Irish uveal melanoma (UM) patients are diagnosed in Sheffield. This study aims to present incidence and survival outcomes for UM patients from Northern Ireland (NI).

Methods

Collaborative retrospective study between Sheffield and Northern Ireland Cancer Registry (NICR). For UM cases not on both databases, outcomes and survival rates (via Kaplan-Meier analysis) were compared. Anonymised NICR data were used to calculate whole-population incidence of UM for NI.

Results

In total, 161 patients from NI were diagnosed in Sheffield, 90 of which were not registered with NICR at the start of this study. Data-omissions were not consistent across patient groups, leading to significant differences between those patients registered and those not. Registered patients had an all-cause 5-year survival rate of only 68.9% compared to 92.5% of those not registered (p < 0.01) and were >17x more likely to have systemic metastases than those not registered (p < 0·001). Following rectification of data-omissions, the European age-standardised incidence rate of UM for NI was 8·6 per million.

Conclusions

This study illustrates the impact of incomplete population-wide data, serving as a real-world lesson in case-identification bias. Rare cancers are at higher risk of omission due to systemic failures as the small numbers involved are not detected by system-wide validation procedures. Following this study, data-transfer agreements between England and NI were actioned, preventing future data-omissions. We present survival and incidence data for UM in NI for the first time, showing the incidence is amongst the highest in Europe, with good survival rates.

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Fig. 1
Fig. 2: Venn diagrams illustrating the groups described in this study, and the number of cases in each group.
Fig. 3

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Data availability

Northern Ireland Cancer Registry data are available and can be accessed by direct application. The data for the Sheffield cohort can be accessed by written application to the authors.

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Acknowledgements

This research has been conducted using data from the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry (NICR) which is funded by the Public Health Agency, Northern Ireland. However, the interpretation and conclusions of the data are the sole responsibility of the author(s). The author(s) acknowledge the contribution of the NICR staff in the production of the NICR data. Like all Cancer Registries our work uses data provided by patients and collected by the health service as part of their care and support.

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Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

HQ conceptualised the study, performed the literature search, study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, produced the figures and wrote the original draft of the paper. JMJ contributed to data analysis, interpretation, and verification of the underlying data, produced the figures, and reviewed and edited the paper. IGR, AG and PR contributed to conceptualisation and methodology and reviewed and edited the paper. DF and GS contributed to data collection, data analysis, verification of the underlying data and edited the paper. SS and DC contributed to the review and editing of the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hibba Quhill.

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Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate

Ethical approval for the NICR databases (including the waiving of requirement for individual patient consent) and data analysis has been granted by the Office for Research Ethics Committees of Northern Ireland (ORECNI reference 15/NI/0203), recently renewed in October 2020 (REC REF 20-NI- 0132). This study complies with the declaration of Helsinki.

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Quhill, H., Jefferis, J.M., Rennie, I.G. et al. Incidence and survival of uveal melanoma in Northern Ireland: how incomplete data can skew results in rare cancers. Eye 37, 2454–2460 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41433-022-02352-4

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