Front. Mar. Sci. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00308 (2017)
Understanding potential climate change impacts on ecosystems requires the inclusion and interpretation of climate model projections in ecological studies. However, this is a challenge for those without climate modelling expertise, suggesting a unified approach may be required. Rachel Cavanagh at the British Antarctic Survey, and co-authors from both ecology and climate modelling, highlight how to best use climate-model data for ecological insights. As an example, they consider the Southern Ocean and sea ice, as its changes will have implications for the biology of the region.
From a multi-model ensemble, a subset of eight models was chosen that reliably simulate present-day sea-ice extent and seasonality. Whilst the mean of this sub-set is similar to the model ensemble, they produce a narrower range of future ice changes. Greater precision in future sea-ice distribution allows for insight into ecological impacts and highlights how multidisciplinary evaluation and selection of climate models can enhance ecological studies.
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Wake, B. Ecological impacts. Nature Clim Change 7, 686 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3408
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3408