High mountain glaciers in the tropical Andes have shown rapid retreat in recent decades, affecting water security in downstream regions reliant on glacial melt for consumption, irrigation, and hydropower. Given their tropical latitude, glaciers in this region show strong sensitivity to air temperature, specifically the freezing level height (FLH) — the lowest level in the atmosphere in which temperatures are 0 °C.
Simone Schauwecker from Meteodat GmbH and the University of Zurich, Switzerland, and colleagues, investigate future FLH changes to determine how ice extent may change for Cordillera Blanca and Cordillera Vilcanota, the two largest glacier-covered regions in Peru. They use in situ, reanalysis and remote sensing data, alongside future projections from CMIP5 models forced with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios.
The authors reveal that FLH can be expected to increase by ∼230 m and ∼850 m for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. Based on contemporary FLH–glacial-extent relationships, even under the most optimistic scenario (RCP2.6), roughly half of the current glaciated area can be expected to disappear by the end of the twenty-first century. For RCP8.5, however, glacier patches may only remain for the highest peaks (>5800m). These results suggest adaptation is required to ensure future water security.
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Simpkins, G. Peruvian freezing height. Nature Clim Change 7, 472 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3339
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3339
