Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 885–890 (2016)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Comparison of single-sector and integrated model outcomes.
Figure 2: Magnitude of differences between single-sector and integrated model outcomes.
Figure 3: Spatial patterns in differences between single-sector and integrated models for an indicative scenario (GFCM21 climate model combined with SRES A2 emissions and socio-economic changes).
Figure 4: Differences between single-sector and integrated model impact indicators for the five European regions used in the Europe Chapter of the IPCC AR51.
Figure 5: Differences between single-sector and integrated models by region with respect to the minimum and maximum European summed IAP results for each indicator.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Kovats, S. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Bogataj, L. K., Corobov, R. & Vallejo, R.) Ch. 23 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

    Google Scholar 

  2. Audsley, E., Trnka, M., Sabaté, S. & Sanchez, A. Interactive modelling of land profitability to estimate European agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate, socio-economics and adaptation. Climatic Change 128, 215–227 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Audsley, E., Pearn, K. R., Harrison, P. A. & Berry, P. M. The impact of future socio-economic and climate changes on agricultural land use and the wider environment in East Anglia and North West England using a meta-model system. Climatic Change 90, 57–88 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Holman, I. P., Harrison, P. A. & Metzger, M. Cross-sectoral impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland—implications for adaptation policy. Reg. Environ. Change 16, 97–109 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Holman, I. P. et al. A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: II Results. Climatic Change 80, 43–73 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Wimmer, F. et al. Modelling the effects of cross-sectoral water allocation schemes in Europe. Climatic Change 128, 229–244 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Rosenzweig, C. et al. The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): protocols and pilot studies. Agric. For. Meteorol. 170, 166–182 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 1–1132 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

  9. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Barros, V. R. et al.) 1133–1820 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

  10. Huber, V. et al. Climate impact research: beyond patchwork. Earth Syst. Dynam. 5, 399–408 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Warren, R. The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 217–241 (2011).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Harrison, P. A., Holman, I. P. & Berry, P. M. Assessing cross-sectoral climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation: an introduction to the CLIMSAVE project. Climatic Change 128, 153–167 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Harrison, P. A. et al. Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe. Reg. Environ. Change 13, 761–780 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Harrison, P. A. et al. Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple European land- and water-based sectors. Climatic Change 128, 279–292 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Mokrech, M., Kebede, A. S., Nicholls, R. J., Wimmer, F. & Feyen, L. An integrated approach for assessing flood impacts due to future climate and socio-economic conditions and the scope of adaptation in Europe. Climatic Change 128, 245–260 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Dunford, R., Smith, A., Harrison, P. A. & Hangau, D. Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change. Landscape Ecol. 30, 443–461 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Dunford, R., Harrison, P. A., Jäger, J., Rounsevell, M. D. A. & Tinch, R. Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity. Climatic Change 128, 339–354 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Jäger, J. et al. Assessing policy robustness of climate change adaptation measures across sectors and scenarios. Climatic Change 128, 395–407 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Kebede, A. S. et al. The sensitivity of cross-sectoral impacts to climate and socio-economic drivers for key European sectors. Climatic Change 128, 261–277 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Dunford, R., Harrison, P. A. & Rounsevell, M. D. A. Exploring scenario and model uncertainty in cross-sectoral integrated assessment approaches to climate change impacts. Climatic Change 132, 417–432 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Brown, C. et al. Analysing uncertainties in climate change impact assessment across sectors and scenarios. Climatic Change 128, 293–306 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Nakićenović, N. et al. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Dubrovsky, M., Trnka, M., Holman, I. P., Svobodova, E. & Harrison, P. A. Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators. Climatic Change 128, 169–186 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Busch, G. Future European agricultural landscapes—what can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies? Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 114, 121–140 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Arnell, N. W. et al. A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change. Nature Clim. Change 3, 512–519 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Holman, I. & Cojocaru, G. Report Describing the Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP) Specification, Meta-model Specifications and the Multi-scale Approach. (CLIMSAVE Project, 2011); http://www.climsave.eu/climsave/doc/Report_on_the_specification_of_the_IAP.pdf

  27. Rounsevell, M. D. A. et al. A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 114, 57–68 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Abildtrup, J. et al. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach. Environ. Sci. Policy 9, 101–115 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Lin, L. I. K. A concordance correlation coefficient to evaluate reproducibility. Biometrics 45, 255–268 (1989).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreement no. 244031 (The CLIMSAVE Project; www.climsave.eu) and no. 603416 (The IMPRESSIONS project; Impacts and risks from higher-end scenarios: strategies for innovative solutions). The authors wish to thank all the modellers that contributed towards the development of the IAP in these projects.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK

    Paula A. Harrison & Robert W. Dunford

  2. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK

    Paula A. Harrison & Robert W. Dunford

  3. Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedford MK43 0AL, UK

    Ian P. Holman

  4. School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK

    Mark D. A. Rounsevell

Authors
  1. Paula A. Harrison
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Robert W. Dunford
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ian P. Holman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Mark D. A. Rounsevell
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

P.A.H. conceived the idea for the study; all authors designed the study; R.W.D. undertook the model runs and data analysis; all authors contributed towards the writing of the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Paula A. Harrison.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 1059 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Harrison, P., Dunford, R., Holman, I. et al. Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions. Nature Clim Change 6, 885–890 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3039

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3039

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing Anthropocene

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Anthropocene