ICES J. Mar. Sci. http://doi.org/v9m (2014)

Credit: © WATERFRAME / ALAMY

The ocean will be affected by climate change leading to warming, increased acidification and expansion of low oxygen waters. How this will impact on biology has been studied, but the use of different data sets and distribution models introduced uncertainty.

To overcome this, Miranda Jones, of the Nereus Program, University of British Columbia, Canada and the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, UK, and William Cheung, of the University of British Columbia, use a multi-model approach — consisting of three widely used species distribution models — to investigate the global impact of climate change on marine biodiversity.

The authors find an average poleward shift for species of 15.5 km per decade for a low emissions scenario, increasing to 25.6 km per decade for high emissions. This projected shift results in a high invasion intensity at the high latitudes, of two species per half degree of latitude in the Arctic Ocean. The shift away from the equator means local species diversity will decrease at a rate of 6.5 species per half degree of latitude under high emissions.