Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Arctic warming will promote Atlantic–Pacific fish interchange

Abstract

Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific1,2. Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier3, potentially facilitating the interchange of marine biota between the two seas4. Here, we forecast the potential northward progression of 515 fish species following climate change, and report the rate of potential species interchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific via the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. For this, we projected niche-based models under climate change scenarios and simulated the spread of species through the passages when climatic conditions became suitable. Results reveal a complex range of responses during this century, and accelerated interchange after 2050. By 2100 up to 41 species could enter the Pacific and 44 species could enter the Atlantic, via one or both passages. Consistent with historical and recent biodiversity interchanges5,6, this exchange of fish species may trigger changes for biodiversity and food webs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with ecological and economic consequences to ecosystems that at present contribute 39% to global marine fish landings.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Predicted number of high-latitude fish species in each approximately 50 × 50 km pixel of the Arctic region according to the EC-Earth model, RCP 8.5 scenario.
Figure 2: Sensitivity analysis of the interchange potential of the NE and NW passages between 2015 and 2100.
Figure 3: The prediction of suitable environmental conditions for three commercial species over time.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Vermeij, G. J. Anatomy of an invasion—the trans-Arctic interchange. Paleobiology 17, 281–307 (1991).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Vermeij, G. J. & Roopnarine, P. D. The coming Arctic invasion. Science 321, 780–781 (2008).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Reid, P. C. et al. A biological consequence of reducing Arctic ice cover: Arrival of the Pacific diatom Neodenticula seminae in the North Atlantic for the first time in 800,000 years. Glob. Change Biol. 13, 1910–1921 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Dodson, J. J., Tremblay, S., Colombani, F., Carscadden, J. E. & Lecomte, F. Trans-Arctic dispersals and the evolution of a circumpolar marine fish species complex, the capelin (Mallotus villosus). Mol. Ecol. 16, 5030–5043 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Vermeij, G. J. When biotas meet—understanding biotic interchange. Science 253, 1099–1104 (1991).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Edelist, D., Rilov, G., Golani, D., Carlton, J. T. & Spanier, E. Restructuring the Sea: Profound shifts in the world’s most invaded marine ecosystem. Divers. Distrib. 19, 69–77 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Smith, S. A., Bell, G. & Bermingham, E. Cross-Cordillera exchange mediated by the Panama Canal increased the species richness of local freshwater fish assemblages. Proc. R. Soc. B 271, 1889–1896 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Hollowed, A. B., Planque, B. & Loeng, H. Potential movement of fish and shellfish stocks from the sub-Arctic to the Arctic Ocean. Fish. Oceanogr. 22, 355–370 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Berg, L. S. Ob amfiboreal’nom (preryvistom) rasprostranenii morskoi fauny v severnom polusharii [On amphiboreal (discontinuous) distribution of marine fauna in the northern hemisphere]. Izv. Gos. Geogr. Obs. 66, 69–78 (1934).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Mecklenburg, C. W., Møller, P. R. & Steinke, D. Biodiversity of arctic marine fishes: Taxonomy and zoogeography. Mar. Biodivers. 41, 109–140 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Fisher, D. et al. Natural variability of Arctic sea ice over the Holocene. Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 87, 273–275 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Christiansen, J. S., Mecklenburg, C. W. & Karamushko, O. V. Arctic marine fishes and their fisheries in light of global change. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 352–359 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M. & Lo, K. Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Parkinson, C. L. & Comiso, J. C. On the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice cover: Combined impact of preconditioning and an August storm. Geophys. Res. Lett. 7, 1356–1361 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Cheung, W. W. L., Watson, R. & Pauly, D. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch. Nature 497, 365–368 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Ruiz, G. M. & Hewitt, C. L. Latitudinal Patterns of Biological Invasions in Marine Ecosystems: A Polar Perspective (Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, 2009).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Arrigo, K. R., van Dijken, G. & Pabi, S. Impact of a shrinking Arctic ice cover on marine primary production. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L19603 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Lenoir, S., Beaugrand, G. & Lecuyer, E. Modelled spatial distribution of marine fish and projected modifications in the North Atlantic Ocean. Glob. Change Biol. 17, 115–129 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Perry, A. L., Low, P. J., Ellis, J. R. & Reynolds, J. D. Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308, 1912–1915 (2005).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Ware, C. et al. Climate change, non-indigenous species and shipping: Assessing the risk of species introduction to a high-Arctic archipelago. Divers. Distrib. 20, 10–19 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Guisan, A. et al. Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecol. Lett. 16, 1424–1435 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Dufresne, J.-L. et al. Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: From CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim. Dynam. 40, 2123–2165 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Therkildsen, N. O. et al. Spatiotemporal SNP analysis reveals pronounced biocomplexity at the northern range margin of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua. Evol. Appl. 6, 690–705 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Møller, P. R. et al. A checklist of the fish fauna of Greenland waters. Zootaxa 2378, 1–84 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. MacKenzie, B. R., Payne, M. R., Boje, J., Høyer, J. L. & Siegstad, H. A cascade of warming impacts brings bluefin tuna to Greenland waters. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 2484–2491 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Walters, V. Fishes of western arctic America and eastern arctic Siberia: Taxonomy and zoogeography. Bull. Am. Mus. Nat. Hist. 106, 255–368 (1955).

    Google Scholar 

  27. Carr, S. M., Kivlichan, D. S., Pepin, P. & Crutcher, D. C. Molecular systematics of gadid fishes, implications for the biogeographic origins of Pacific species. Can. J. Zool. 77, 19–26 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Albouy, C. et al. From projected species distribution to food-web structure under climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 730–741 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Beaugrand, G., Reid, P. C., Ibanez, F., Lindley, J. A. & Edwards, M. Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate. Science 296, 1692–1694 (2002).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  30. Møller, P. R., Nielsen, J. & Andersen, M. E. in The Physiology of Polar Fishes (eds Farrell, A. P. & Steffensen, J. F.) 25–78 (Academic Press, 2005).

    Book  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The study was carried out with financial support from the Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation as part of the Greenland Climate Research Centre. Support was provided by NACLIM (EU-FP7 GA n.308299), the NAACOS project (DK) to S.M.O., the Canada Excellence Research Chair, and is a contribution to the Arctic Science Partnership. We thank J. Oakley, K. Steenken and E. Shanley-Roberts for improving the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

M.S.W. conceived the initial idea and designed the study with the entire co-author team. P.G., R.B.H., P.R.M., L.P. and M.S.W. gathered data on fish distribution and traits. All taxonomic affiliations were confirmed by Arctic fish taxonomist P.R.M. O.B. ran the niche-based models and analyses of sensitivity, with conceptual help from A.G. P.G. and L.P. ran the functional analyses, while P.R.M. led the compilation of historical evidence. S.M.O. and D.S. (polar oceanographers) and M.S.W. provided oceanographic and environmental data. All co-authors contributed to the text and interpretation of the results.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to M. S. Wisz.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wisz, M., Broennimann, O., Grønkjær, P. et al. Arctic warming will promote Atlantic–Pacific fish interchange. Nature Clim Change 5, 261–265 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2500

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2500

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing