Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability

Abstract

Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere1. This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers2, disintegration of floating ice shelves3 and a ‘greening’ through the expansion in range of various flora4. Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion5, local sea-ice loss6, an increase in westerly winds5,7, and changes in the strength and location of low–high-latitude atmospheric teleconnections8,9. Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet. These circulation changes have also increased the advection of sea ice towards the east coast of the peninsula, amplifying their effects. Our findings cover only 1% of the Antarctic continent and emphasize that decadal temperature changes in this region are not primarily associated with the drivers of global temperature change but, rather, reflect the extreme natural internal variability of the regional atmospheric circulation.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: SAT changes at the six AP stations.
Figure 2: AP temperature and measures of tropical climate variability since 1979.
Figure 3: Trends and differences in atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
Figure 4: Differences in atmospheric conditions between the cooling and warming periods (1999–2014 minus 1979–1997).

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Turner, J. et al. Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 279–294 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Cook, A. J., Fox, A. J., Vaughan, D. G. & Ferrigno, J. G. Retreating glacier fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past half-century. Science 308, 541–544 (2005)

    Article  CAS  ADS  Google Scholar 

  3. Vaughan, D. G. Implications of the break-up of Wordie Ice Shelf, Antarctica for sea level. Antarct. Sci. 5, 403–408 (1993)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Convey, P. in Antarctic Peninsula Climate Variability: Historical and Palaeoenvironmental Perspectives (eds Domack, E. et al.) 145–158 (American Geophysical Union, 2003)

  5. Thompson, D. W. J. & Solomon, S. Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 296, 895–899 (2002)

    Article  CAS  ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. Turner, J., Maksym, T., Phillips, T., Marshall, G. J. & Meredith, M. P. Impact of changes in sea ice advance on the large winter warming on the western Antarctic Peninsula. Int. J. Climatol. 33, 852–861 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Marshall, G. J., Orr, A., van Lipzig, N. P. M. & King, J. C. The impact of a changing Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on Antarctic Peninsula summer temperatures. J. Clim. 19, 5388–5404 (2006)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Ding, Q., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S. & Kuttel, M. Winter warming in West Antarctica caused by central tropical Pacific warming. Nature Geosci. 4, 398–403 (2011)

    Article  CAS  ADS  Google Scholar 

  9. Clem, K. R. & Fogt, R. L. Varying roles of ENSO and SAM on the Antarctic Peninsula climate in austral spring. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 11481–11492 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  10. Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B. & Jones, P. D. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 111, D12106 (2006)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. Screen, J. A. & Simmonds, I. The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification. Nature 464, 1334–1337 (2010)

    Article  CAS  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Vaughan, D. G. et al. Recent rapid regional climate warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. Clim. Change 60, 243–274 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Bromwich, D. H. et al. Central West Antarctica among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. Nature Geosci. 6, 139–145 (2013)

    Article  CAS  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. Connolley, W. M. Variability in annual mean circulation in southern high latitudes. Clim. Dyn. 13, 745–756 (1997)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., Branstator, G. & Phillips, A. S. Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming. Nature Clim. Chang. 4, 911–916 (2014)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Li, X. C., Holland, D. M., Gerber, E. P. & Yoo, C. Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice. Nature 505, 538–542 (2014)

    Article  CAS  ADS  Google Scholar 

  17. Carrasco, J. F. Decadal changes in the near-surface air temperature in the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula. Atmos. Clim. Sci 3, 275–281 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Gillett, N. P. et al. Attribution of polar warming to human influence. Nature Geosci. 1, 750–754 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  19. Bals-Elsholz, T. M. et al. The wintertime Southern Hemisphere split jet: structure, variability, and evolution. J. Clim. 14, 4191–4215 (2001)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  20. Turner, J. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Antarctica. Int. J. Climatol. 24, 1–31 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Chen, B., Smith, S. R. & Bromwich, D. H. Evolution of the tropospheric split jet over the South Pacific Ocean during the 1986–89 ENSO cycle. Mon. Weath. Rev. 124, 1711–1731 (1996)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  22. Lorenz, D. J. & Hartmann, D. L. Eddy-zonal flow feedback in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J. Clim. 16, 1212–1227 (2003)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  23. Plumb, R. A. On the 3-dimensional propagation of stationary waves. J. Atmos. Sci. 42, 217–229 (1985)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  24. Fyfe, J. C. et al. Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown. Nature Clim. Chang. 6, 224–228 (2016)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  25. Trenberth, K. E. Has there been a hiatus ? Science 349, 691–692 (2015)

    Article  CAS  ADS  Google Scholar 

  26. Mulvaney, R. et al. Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history. Nature 489, 141–144 (2012)

    Article  CAS  ADS  Google Scholar 

  27. Thomas, E. R., Bracegirdle, T. J., Turner, J. & Wolff, E. W. A 308 year record of climate variability in West Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 5492–5496 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  28. Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Franzke, C. L. E. & Schellnhuber, H. J. Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica. Clim. Dyn. 46, 263–271 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Turner, J., Hosking, J. S., Marshall, G. J., Phillips, T. & Bracegirdle, T. J. Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low. Clim. Dyn. 46, 2391–2402 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Bracegirdle, T. J., Connolley, W. M. & Turner, J. Antarctic climate change over the Twenty First Century. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D03103 (2008)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  31. Turner, J. et al. The SCAR READER project: towards a high-quality database of mean Antarctic meteorological observations. J. Clim. 17, 2890–2898 (2004)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  32. Ding, Q. H. & Steig, E. J. Temperature change on the Antarctic Peninsula linked to the tropical Pacific. J. Clim. 26, 7570–7585 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  33. Bracegirdle, T. J. & Marshall, G. J. The reliability of Antarctic tropospheric pressure and temperature in the latest global reanalyses. J. Clim. 25, 7138–7146 (2012)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  34. Comiso, J. C. Variability and trends in Antarctic surface temperatures from in situ and satellite infrared measurements. J. Clim. 13, 1674–1696 (2000)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  35. Mann, H. B. Non parametric test against trend. Econometric 13, 245–259 (1945)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  36. Gerstengarbe, F. W. & Werner, P. C. Estimation of the beginning and end of recurrent events within a climate regime. Clim. Res. 11, 97–107 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Li, Y., Lu, H., Jarvis, M. J., Clilverd, M. A. & Bates, B. Nonlinear and nonstationary influences of geomagnetic activity on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 116, D16109 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  38. Burkey, J. A non-parametric monotonic trend test computing Mann-Kendall Tau, Tau-b, and Sens Slope written in MathWorks MATLAB (King County, Department of Natural Resources and Parks, Science and Technical Services section, 2006)

  39. Santer, B. D. et al. Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time series. J. Geophys. Res. 105, 7337–7356 (2000)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  40. Marshall, G. J. Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. J. Clim. 16, 4134–4143 (2003)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council under grant NE/K00445X/1. It forms part of the Polar Science for Planet Earth programme of the British Antarctic Survey. We are grateful to D. G. Vaughan for valuable discussions during this study. We are grateful to ECMWF for the provision of reanalysis fields and to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center for the sea-ice data. The data used in this study are available from the authors upon request.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

J.T. conceived the study and led the writing of the manuscript. J.T., H.L., T.P., J.S.H., G.J.M., T.J.B. and J.C.K. analysed the results. P.D. investigated the role of tropical forcing. T.P. managed the data and prepared some of the figures. H.L. carried out the statistical analysis. R.M. compared the recent trends with palaeoclimate data. I.W. computed the stationary eddy fluxes.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to John Turner.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Additional information

Reviewer Information Nature thanks W. Hobbs and E. Steig for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Figure 1 The Southern Annular Mode.

The austral summer (December–February) SAM index40 for December 1979–February 2014. The linear trends for 1980–1997 and 1999–2014 are shown in red. The data were obtained from https://legacy.bas.ac.uk/met/gjma/sam.html.

Extended Data Figure 2 Seasonal SLP trends during the warming period.

ad, DJF December 1979–February 1998 (a), MAM 1979–1997 (b), JJA 1979–1997 (c) and September–November (SON) 1979–1997 (d). Areas where the trends are significant at P < 0.05 are indicated by a bold line.

Extended Data Figure 3 Seasonal trends in sea-ice concentration during the warming period.

ad, DJF December 1979–February 1998 (a), MAM 1979–1997 (b), JJA 1979– 1997 (c) and SON 1979–1997 (d). Areas where the trends are significant at P < 0.05 are indicated by a bold line.

Extended Data Figure 4 Seasonal SLP trends during the cooling period.

ad, DJF December 1999–February 2014 (a), MAM 1999–2014 (b), JJA 1999–2014 (c) and SON 1999–2014 (d). Areas where the trends are significant at P < 0.05 are indicated by a bold line.

Extended Data Figure 5 Seasonal trends in sea-ice concentration during the cooling period.

ad, DJF December 1999–February 2014 (a), MAM 1999–2014 (b), JJA 1999–2014 (c) and SON 1999–2014 (d). Areas where the trends are significant at P < 0.05 are indicated by a bold line.

Extended Data Figure 6 The correlation of annual mean SAT from the stations with annual mean SLP for 1979–2014.

af, Areas where the correlation is significant at P < 0.05 are indicated by a bold line. Rothera (a), Vernadsky (b), Bellingshausen (c), O’Higgins (d), Esperanza (e) and Marambio (f).

Extended Data Table 1 Annual and seasonal trends of the stacked, normalized temperature record

PowerPoint slides

Source data

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Turner, J., Lu, H., White, I. et al. Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability. Nature 535, 411–415 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing