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Influence of exposure error and effect modification by socioeconomic status on the association of acute cardiovascular mortality with particulate matter in Phoenix

Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology volume 17, pages S11–S19 (2007)Cite this article

Abstract

Using ZIP code-level mortality data, the association of cardiovascular mortality with PM2.5 and PM10−2.5, measured at a central monitoring site, was determined for three populations at different distances from the monitoring site but with similar numbers of deaths and therefore similar statistical power. The % risk and statistical significance for the association of mortality with PM2.5 fell off with distance from the monitor, as would be expected if exposure error increased with distance. However, the % risk for PM10−2.5 increased in going from the population in Central Phoenix, where the monitoring site was located, to a population in a Middle Ring around Phoenix and fell off in an Outer Ring population. The % risks for the Outer Ring were low for each of the six lag days (0–5) and for the 6-day moving average. The lag structures for PM2.5 and PM10−2.5 also differed for the Central Phoenix and Middle Ring populations. These differences led us to examine the socioeconomic status (SES) of the populations. On the basis of education and income, the population in Central Phoenix had a lower SES than the Middle Ring. Thus, the differences between Central Phoenix and the Middle Ring may be due to effect modification by SES and differences in exposure error. However, the effect modification by SES may be different for thoracic coarse particulate matter (PM) than for fine PM. This study provides new information on the association of PM10−2.5 with cardiovascular mortality. In the Middle Ring, the % risk per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10−2.5 concentration (lower and upper 95% confidence levels) for lag day 1 was 3.4 (1.0, 5.8) and for the 6-day distributed-lag was 3.8 (0.3, 7.5). The differences in lag structure for PM2.5 and PM10−2.5 provide evidence that the two particle size classes have health effects that are different and independent. This study also helps explain the high % risks for PM2.5 found for Central Phoenix, 6.6 (1.1, 12.5) for lag day 1, and 11.5 (2.8, 20.9) for the 6-day moving average. The smaller area may have a lower exposure error, and the lower SES population may be more susceptible to fine PM as compared to the larger areas and more heterogeneous populations used in many studies.

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Acknowledgements

This article has been reviewed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and cleared for publication. However, the views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the EPA. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. This work was supported in part by EPA Contract EP05C000451 with Therese Mar. We thank David Svendsgaard, Mary Ross, Lucas Neas, and Jee-Young Kim for their useful comments.

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  1. National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA

    William E Wilson

  2. Department of Environmental Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA

    Therese F Mar & Jane Q Koenig

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  1. William E Wilson
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  2. Therese F Mar
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  3. Jane Q Koenig
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Correspondence to William E Wilson.

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Wilson, W., Mar, T. & Koenig, J. Influence of exposure error and effect modification by socioeconomic status on the association of acute cardiovascular mortality with particulate matter in Phoenix. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 17 (Suppl 2), S11–S19 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.jes.7500620

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