Oxygen-deprived dead zones in coastal waters around the world have expanded exponentially since the 1960s and are likely to increase further in a warming climate.

Markus Meier of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in Norrköping and his colleagues used a group of physical–biogeochemical models, driven by data from regional climate models, to project the effects of climate change and changes in nutrient cycles on oxygen conditions in the Baltic Sea.

Most scenarios suggested that oxygen-depleted zones at the bottom of the sea would expand by the end of the century. Driving factors include rising nutrient input from river runoff; reduced oxygen flux from the atmosphere to the ocean; and increased oxygen consumption by surface-level organisms that are fed by the boost in nutrients. Similar changes can be expected for coastal oceans worldwide, the authors say.

Geophys. Res. Lett. 10.1029/2011GL049929 (2011)