Nature Geosci. doi:10.1038/ngeo604 (2009)

Changes in atmospheric circulation driven by global warming could shift the global distribution of ozone northwards.

Michaela Hegglin and Theodore Shepherd at the University of Toronto in Canada isolated the effects of global warming by simulating ozone interactions in an atmospheric chemistry climate model. They focused on the decades 1960–70 and 2090–2100, representing periods before and after the most severe effects of ozone-depleting chemicals. Climate change increases tropical upwelling, pushing ozone into northern latitudes. At the same time, southern latitudes see a decrease in ozone transport.

As a result, the authors report that by the end of this century ultraviolet radiation could decrease by 9% at high northern latitudes; tropical regions could see an increase of 4%; and southern high latitudes could receive up to 20% more in the late spring and early summer.