Ecol. Lett. 12, 420–431 (2009)

Networks of protected areas have become a key conservation tool, but little is known about how climate change will affect them.

A team led by Stephen Willis of Durham University, UK, modelled the distribution of all of sub-Saharan Africa's breeding birds with respect to the Important Bird Areas network. The researchers calculated species' climate envelopes under the predictions of the 2001 third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

They found that species distributions will change drastically in the network's areas, which make up 7% of the continent and cover 42 countries. However, most of the 815 birds considered 'priority species' will still find a home somewhere within the network. Only seven or eight such species are predicted to lose all suitable climate from the network.