Sir
In response to your News story “Bleak forecast for space weather” (Nature 425, 649; 200310.1038/425649b ) about US funding and organizational issues, we would like to suggest possible European and global collaboration in this field.
Scientists in the United States and Europe now believe that computer-based forecasting of space weather is possible in real time, from hours to possibly a few days ahead. Such forecasts would provide estimates of the effects of solar flares and solar particle fluxes on Earth's magnetic field. Computer and data-handling systems would be similar to those used for numerical weather prediction but would instead use the equations of magneto-hydrodynamics and plasma physics and rely on real-time satellite (for example, SOHO, CLUSTER, GEOS, ACE, RHESSI, TRACE, WIND, POLAR and GEOTAIL) and ground-based observations.
Regional forecasting centres would be needed to operate these systems. We proposed one such centre — the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting — at a recent Royal Society meeting (J. C. R. Hunt and A. J. Coates Phil. Trans R. Soc. A 361, 205–218; 2003), and another was proposed as a possible role for the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the United States, following a review of the centre chaired by James Baker in November 2001.
Recent events such as the unusual solar activity seen during the past few months ( Nature 426, 112; 2003 ) have shown that quantitative predictions are needed for how solar activity affects systems on Earth, including air-traffic control and electrical power grids. Just as plans are developing to organize global warnings of near-Earth objects in space, surely there are equally good reasons to establish a global cooperative network for forecasting space weather, involving major centres in North America, Europe and Asia?
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Hunt, J., Coates, A. Joint efforts needed to forecast space weather. Nature 427, 13 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1038/427013c
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/427013c