Abstract
THE 'materials science' method for eruption prediction1–3 arises from the application of a general law governing the failure of materials: Ω⊙−α Ω¨ − A = 0, where A and α are empirical constants, and Ω is an observable quantity such as ground deformation, seismicity or gas emission. This law leads to the idea of the 'inverse-rate' plot, in which the time of failure can be estimated by extrapolation of the curve of Ω−1 versus time to a pre-deter-mined intercept. Here we suggest that this method can be combined with real-time seismic amplitude monitoring to provide a tool for near-real-time eruption prediction, and we demonstrate how it might have been used to predict two dome-growth episodes at Mount St Helens volcano in 1985 and 1986, and two explosive eruptions at Redoubt volcano in 1989–90.
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Voight, B., Cornelius, R. Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time. Nature 350, 695–698 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1038/350695a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/350695a0
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