washington

Global carbon emissions declined last year while economic productivity increased, providing evidence, according to the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute, that cutting greenhouse gas emissions may not necessarily have a financial cost.

The institute, extrapolating from industry reports of fossil-fuel consumption, estimates that emissions fell by 0.5 per cent to 6.32 billion tons in 1998. Meanwhile, the global economy grew by 2.5 per cent.

It says that the numbers are a “sign that it may be less difficult to slow global warming under the Kyoto Protocol than has been assumed by some industry groups”. Industry groups, in contrast, say the data vindicate their preference for voluntary reductions.

The pattern of falling emissions and economic gain was strongly evident in China, the world's second-largest emitter of carbon. The Chinese economy grew by 7.2 per cent last year, but its emissions fell by 3.7 per cent. The reasons for the decline are unclear, although the government has reduced subsidies for coal and has banned coal burning in Beijing homes.

Similarly, Poland's emissions fell by 9.7 per cent while its economy grew by 6 per cent. Emissions had already declined in central Europe in the early 1990s, but this was owing to economic collapse, not growth.

Although no one can be sure that the 1998 figures are a trend, several factors may be involved, says Worldwatch, notably energy efficiency, fewer fossil-fuel subsidies by governments, and the transition to a cleaner information economy.

The Worldwatch analysis follows the release of figures by the US Department of Energy showing that emissions in the United States rose by 0.4 per cent in 1998 while the economy grew by 3.9 per cent. The United States is still producing greenhouse gases at 10 per cent above 1990 levels.