Abstract
THE Registrar-General' s first report on fertility, based on the data obtained under the Population (Statistics) Act of 1938, shows that in 1938 the reproduction rate in England and Wales, adjusted for the anticipated rates of survival of women and girls, must have been between 16 and 20 per cent below the replacement level, and that if a serious decline in the native-born population of Great Britain is to be averted, the rate must be raised to that extent within the next few years. Complete elimination of stillbirths and child deaths up to age fifteen would bring us within 6-7 per cent of the goal, but that is outside the bounds of possibility. The increase might be effected by less avoidance of marriage and by marriage at an earlier age, but if no such social changes as these occur, it can only come by increase in the average number of children per family.
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STOCKS, . FAMILY SIZE AND SURVIVAL IN GREAT BRITAIN. Nature 150, 597–598 (1942). https://doi.org/10.1038/150597a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/150597a0