Twentieth Century Inventions: a Forecast

Abstract

THE rôle of prophet of the industrial development ot the discoveries of science is one not lightly to be assumed, especially if it is the aim of the prophecy to cover so long a period as a hundred years. Mr. Sutherland has, nevertheless, had the temerity to attempt this task, and to approach it in the spirit of the man of science deducing logical conclusions from definite data rather than in that of the writer of fiction giving free rein to his imagination. We are not sure whether, when a century is concerned, the imaginative method, if kept within proper bounds, is not almost as satisfactory as the other. The predictions of the novelist are often fantastic and wild; but if he is likely to overshoot the bounds of probability his more cautious brother prophet is almost certain to fall short of them. The system of the logical prophet has, indeed, an inherent defect—it can only foretell the development and further application of knowledge that has already been acquired, and cannot take into consideration the possibility of the discovery of new facts. Yet it is by discovery as much as by invention, if we may draw a distinction between the two, hat progress has taken place in the past, and it is to be hoped, for the sake of science, that the same will be true in the future. No prophet writing in 1801 on the same lines as Mr. Sutherland could have foretold the present development of electric traction, for he could not have foreseen the discovery of electro-magnetic induction made by Faraday thirty years later. He might, however, have predicted the modern railway systems, because the essential principles of these systems were already known. It would be easy to multiply instances, but we think it is evident from what we have said that Mr. Sutherland's prophecy must in some respects fall short of the truth, unless, indeed, the coming century is to be devoid of discoveries.

Twentieth Century Inventions: a Forecast

By George Sutherland Pp. xvi + 286. (London: Longmans and Co., 1901.) Price 4s. 6d. net.