A Plausible Paradox in Chances

Abstract

IT seems worth while to record the following pretty statistical paradox as a good example of the pitfalls into which persons are apt to fall, who attempt short cuts in the solution of problems of chance instead of adhering to the true and narrow road. It is true that the paradox would excite immediate suspicion in the mind of any one accustomed to such problems, but I doubt if there are many who, without recourse to paper and pen, could distinctly specify off-hand where the fallacy lies. It will be easy for the reader to make the experiment of his own competence to do so after reading to the end of the second of the two following paragraphs.